Journalists and commentators like to make predictions about the future using carefully chosen words. Other forecasters prefer the language of numbers. Good Judgment, a forecasting firm, has recruited many such individuals to its team of superforecasters, who work together to provide detailed, specific forecasts. Here are their predictions for events in 2023.
Congratulations to Jared Leibowich from San Francisco, who has won The World Ahead 2022 forecasting challenge organised in collaboration with Good Judgment. He took up forecasting during the pandemic as a way to maintain his mental health in a time of uncertainty. Could you be a superforecaster, too?
Last year’s predictions
The superforecasters scored 5/8 with their predictions for 2022, correctly calling election results in France and Brazil; the lack of a Winter Olympics boycott; the outcome of America’s midterm elections; and that global covid-19 vaccinations would reach 12bn doses in mid-2022. The Omicron variant was to blame for the three misses. A new dominant variant was not anticipated until later in 2022; Omicron meant gdp growth was weaker than expected; and it hindered the resumption of air travel in America.
This article appeared in the Superforecasts section of the print edition of The World Ahead 2023 under the headline “The experts’ best bets”